Keenland: Raven Run Stakes Odds, Analysis

  1. Covey Trace (15 to 1) with B Hernandez. Winner of her last two and three of her last four starts will be facing her toughest challenge to date after taking a G3 at Charlestown by a neck. Finished a respectable fourth here last October in a NW2L. Jockey/Trainer combo ROI not bad and trainer is now 1 for 1 in graded stakes.
  2. Ma Can Do It (12 to 1) with C Hill. Broke maiden at Churchill over off-going as the favorite in last going 1 mile. Was second here in April at today’s distance. Jockey winning at 17% for the meet but 0 for 3 when teaming up with Romans who has just one winner from 14 starts at Keeneland’s Fall Stars 2016.
  3. Grace’s Treasure (15 to 1) J. Castanon. Was 3rd in the Dogwood last time out. Started career here in April with a 5th place finish at 50 to 1 going 6 furlongs in a race that saw the top three finishers return to win next time out. This miss failed at 3 to 1 when exiting that key race but got the maiden win in next at Ellis and then a win at Indiana before the Dogwood. Jockey/Trainer hitting at 50% and horse is sitting on two bullet moves here going 5/8ths.
  4. Lucy N Ethel (9 to 2) C. Lanerie. Undefeated in 4 starts, this Pennsylvania bred daughter of During took her opener vs. state breds at Parx last November. Took next out at Parx by 13 vs. open company and it was time to move on to possibly bigger and better things. Opened the ’16 season with a decisive win in the G3 Old Hat at Gulfstream next time out as the heavy favorite in January going 6. Was put away until last month when she returned to take the G2 Prioress at Saratoga at 22 to 1 proving she’s no fluke. Gets a new trainer in Amoss and Keeneland’s Spring meet riding champion in Lanerie. This race isn’t any tougher than the Prioress but why such a long break January and September.
  5. Southern Girl (12 to 1) F. Geroux. 4 for 5 lifetime for Larry Jones who has just one win at the meet. Was 3rd here last October at odds-on off maiden win at Delaware. Shows steady signs of improvement but this will be her biggest test to date.
  6. Bellamentary (6 to 1) M. Garcia. West Coast runner comes in with 3 wins and 3 seconds from 7 career starts. Regular rider Garcia will be making the trip with her off two second place finishes in graded stakes company. Cuts back to where she’s two for two at the distance and twice faced undefeated and current Breeders’ Cup Longine’s Distaff favorite Songbird.
  7. Malibu Stacy (30 to 1) G. Saez. Twice raced here in defeat as 2 year old to start career. Broke maiden at Belmont in June then was runner up in G3 Victory Ride before taking next out at Saratoga vs. N1X company. Toss the turf move in last. Jockey is 0 for 11 at the meet and trainer isn’t known for graded stakes prowess.
  8. Curlin’s Approval (8 to 1) T. Gaffalione. 3 for 4 in career for Jockey/Trainer combo who comes in from Gulfstream with a positive ROI of $1.65 but trainer isn’t known for success in graded stakes company outside of Florida. Away since August and has a best of bullet move in the chamber for this.
  9. Coniah (10 to 1) J. Bravo. Was sixth behind the favorite in the Prioress two back before a return to the winner’s circle next time out in a OCN2X at Belmont as the favorite. Gets top rider in Bravo who is 0 for 4 at Keeneland over the past two years. Piece is possible.
  10. Sophia’s Song (5 to 1) R. Albarado. Took three in a row before adding blinkers two back at Saratoga in a second place showing. Returned wearing them in the Charlestown Oaks when finishing third as choice behind Covey Trace. Toss the hood for today’s heat and a change in rider should get this miss back on track.
  11. Takrees (12 to 1) R. Santana. Faced Lucy N Ethel at 20 to 1 last time out in the Prioress. Closed into fast fractions and finished third that day. Added distance can’t hurt but is still a cut below the best of these.
  12. Lightstream (3 to 1) J. Leparoux. 4th attempt in 5 career starts at this distance. Took first three in a row before a 3rd in G1 Mother Goose at 1 1/16 miles. Second in the Test last time out. Gets Leparoux again and the perfect spot for top connections.

Keeneland’s Raven Run Stakes Past Performances

Keeneland: 2016 Queen Elizabeth II Odds, Analysis

The G1 $500,000 Queen Elizabeth II is today’s feature at Keeneland.

Distance: 1 1/18 miles
Surface: Turf
Age: 3 Year Old Fillies
Weather Forecast: 80° with 10% chance of rain

The field with odds and Wiz Capper’s analysis of the race:

  1. Catch a Glimpse — 2 to 1. Florent Geroux. Won the 2015 running of the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies on the Turf here last year over a yielding track going 1 mile. Off the board in career opener at Saratoga in a race that was moved to the sloppy main track. Reeled off 8 straight wins before a second place finish in the G2 Lake Placid last time out. Winner of the Belmont Oaks Invitational, a BC Challenge series race, will make her final prep for the 2016 Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Turf.
  2. On Leave — 5 to 1. Jose Ortiz. Winner of all four starts in 2016 after adding Lasix. Steadily improving Beyer numbers in each career start culminating with a nice win in the G2 Sands Point on the inner at Belmont in last. Picks up 5 lbs. and trainer is 0 for 5 at the meet, so far. This is her toughest test to date.
  3. Stays in Vegas — 12 to 1. F Prat. Three for five on the lawn for Hollendorfer. Hasn’t raced since August 20 when 3rd in the G1 Del Mar Oaks after giving up a 2 1/2 length lead in deep stretch at today’s distance. Timing will be everything for this miss but appears to be over matched considering that Harmonize, the Del Mar Oaks winner, is also in here.
  4. Harmonize — 8 to 1. J Alvarado. Hall of Fame trainer Mott added blinkers two back vs. Catch a Glimpse in the Oaks Invitational when finishing 5th before taking the Del Mar Oaks last time out. Deep closer who took the G3 Jessamine at 2 before a 7th place finish in the BC Juvenile Filly Turf last year. Toss that one and the inner track tries at Belmont and she’s got a shot.
  5. Hawksmoor — 6 to 1. Corey Lanerie. Euro runner comes to the States to find comfort with Lasix for the first time. Beaten by 2015 BC Juvenile Filly Turf runner up Alice Springs last time out in Ireland. Gets a 5 lb. break in weight after carrying 126 in each of nine career starts. Firm turf will improve chances.
  6. Try Your Luck — 15 to 1. Julien Leparoux. Broke maiden here by 9 at Keeneland Spring meet in April going 1 1/6 miles. Took a long distance event by 7 at Kentucky Downs in last. Picks up a top turf jock in Leparoux for toughest test to date.
  7. Time and Motion — 5 to 2. John Velazquez. Steadily improving in each of her 2016 races culminating with a neck victory over Catch a Glimpse in the Lake Placid last time. Deserves second choice status but running style favors softer going.
  8. Queen Caroline — 20 to 1. A. Cintron. Hmm. So, she’s won 4 in a row – two at Pimlico, two at Indiana Downs. Owns a second place finish over the track. Doesn’t belong.
  9. Mokat — 12 to 1. Kent Desormeaux. Another exiting the Del Mar Oaks when 3 to 1 favorite. Entering here with just two lifetime victories off a 4th place finish in last makes me think that race may be key. 13th behind Cathryn Sophia in Kentucky Oaks and twice beaten by Songbird — all on dirt — but a return to the lawn gives this girl a shot albeit distance is a concern. Shot with the Kid at a price.