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Matriarc 2016 – Odds, Analysis, Poll

Matriarc 2016 – Del Mar

The Matriarc is the WizCapper race of the day from Del Mar.

Note: Check the weather forecast for Del Mar for Sunday racing.

The Matriarc is a G1 race for fillies and mares three-years-old and up going 1 mile on the turf.

Watch the replay of the G1 Hollywood Derby won by Annals of Time who was making only the fourth start of his career for trainer Chad Brown.

Matriarc 2016 Field, Odds, Analysis

Here’s the field for the Matriarc from the rail out:

  1. Tiz a Kiss – 6 year-old Cal bred by Cee’s Tizzy was a winner here three back in a NW3x for OC $80k at this distance with Desormeaux. Went 1 1/4 miles two back in a G1 at Santa Anita finishing 5th, followed by a second place finish in the G2 Goldikova at 1 mile beaten 1/2 length by Zindaya. Too many 2nd’s in the books. Odds: 12 to 1
  2. Stays in Vegas – Classy looking 3 year-old by City Zip will be sent out by HOF Hollendorfer who is 19% at the meet. Gets new rider in Van Dyke who is 0 for 3 for trainer. Horse is 0 for 2 at Del Mar. Odds: 12 to 1
  3. Kitcat – Chilean bred by Scat Daddy was close early in the Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Turf a few weeks ago before throwing in the towel to finish 12th. Gets rider who is 0 for 49 at the meet. Has 7 lifetime wins all in Chile. Probably not as bad as it seems but chances in here are slim. Odds: 30 to 1
  4. Zindaya – Winner of the G2 Goldikova last time out as the even money favorite for Brown and Castellano on Breeders’ Cup weekend. Comes back to the West coast to try a G1 for the first time in her 5 year career. Distance is right, connections are right, price is right. Odds: 9 to 2
  5. Sobradora Inc – 4 year-old Argentinian by Include out of a Bernstein mare. Won the first four starts of her career in her native country at longer distances. Won a restricted race going 1 1/16 miles here in her first race in the states before a 5th and a 10th in the G2 Mabee and G1 Rodeo Drive, respectively. Was 5th last time out when dropping back in to restricted company. Odds: 20 to 1
  6. Mexican Gold – Ortiz, Jr. is back aboard this one for Brown off a win two back going 1 1/16 miles over the Saratoga inner as the favorite. Was third last time out in the G3 Athenia over the soft Belmont inner. Other two lifetime wins earned in France. Cut back in distance should help and could complete the exacta for Brown. Odds: 8 to 1
  7. Roca Rojo – The third in here for Brown. Was the winner of the Athenia last time out and the winner of an OC$80k at this distance at Belmont two back. Gets new rider in Geroux as Castellano sticks with second choice Zindaya. Irish bred will open as the favorite having won five of six lifetime. Odds: 7 to 2
  8. Nancy From Nairobi – 6th in the Goldikova last time out for Sadler. 0 for 2 at Del Mar but has two wins at the distance at Santa Anita. Was 6th in only G1 start. Odds: 12 to 1
  9. Decked Out – NW3L eligible. This 3 year-old by Street Boss has a ton of graded stakes tries on her chart. Only win was a G3 over a yielding turf at Santa Anita going 1 1/8 miles in April. Odds: 20 to 1
  10. Prize Exhibit – Won the G2 Monrovia at Santa Anita to open the year after finishing 6th in this race last year. Has been beaten by several others in here over the course of her career. Gets HOF Smith in the irons who is 0 for 9 with trainer Cassidy who is 1 for 16 at the meet. Odds: 20 to 1
  11. Time and Motion – Three year-old will be facing older for the first time off back-to-back wins in the G2 Lake Placid and G1 QEII at Keeneland, respectively. Cuts back in distance with Johnny V. who was aboard for all 5 lifetime wins. Only other time at 1 mile was a 5th in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Filly Turf at Keeneland in ’15. Track was off that day. She’s coming off career best 100 Beyer. Odds: 5 to 1
  12. Miss Temple City – Comes in as the favorite off a 5th place finish in the Breeders’ Cup Mile a month ago when facing open company. Before that beat the boys int he G1 Shadwell at Keeneland. The third place finisher in the BC Mile came back to win the Native Diver here last weekend. And she did beat the BC Mile winner, Tourist, in the Shadwell. High, wide and outside post position doesn’t help but her last two makes her the one to beat. Odds: 3 to 1

DRF Free Past Performances

Who will win the Matriarc?

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Hollywood Derby 2016: Odds, Analysis, Insight

Hollywood Derby 2016 – Del Mar

The Hollywood Derby is the DRF.com race of the day from Del Mar.

Note: Check the weather forecast for Del Mar on Saturday.

It’s a G1 race for three-year olds, with 12 runners set to go 1 1/8 miles on the turf for a purse of $300,000.

Chad Brown has sent three horses to Del Mar for the race in what I’m going to consider a test of his top three-year old turf runners for a possible performance in the 2017 Breeders’ Cup which will be held at Del Mar for the first time in Breeders’ Cup history.

Here’s a look at the horses from the rail out:

  1. Beach Patrol – Stablemate Camelot Kitten seems to have his number as he’s beaten him twice in graded turf tries, albeit by a head each time, but it’s the type of thing that can’t be overlooked. To his credit, he broke his maiden on the Santa Anita turf in March and came right back three weeks later to win going this distance on the lead every jump in a OC80K for NW1X at SA before heading east to face ‘Camelot’. Odds: 9 to 2
  2. Camelot Kitten – Broke maiden on the inner at Belmont as a two-year old in September ’15. Came back two races later to beat two horses in the ’15 BC Juvenile Turf at Keeneland before going on the shelf for 6 months. Took the G2 American Turf at Churchill by a head over stablemate to his inside. Won three more this year all on the inner at Saratoga and Belmont. Odds: 7 to 2
  3. Frank Conversation – LOVE to see subtle changes on the chart that proves positive. Grant it, he’s won two of four lifetime over the synthetic at Golden Gate, but he’s won the other two over the Santa Anita lawn including the G2 Twilight Derby at $37 to $1 when O’Neill removed the hood. Lone race here was a 3rd place finish going 1 mile after breaking his maiden. 8 to 1 morning line makes this son of Quality Road by an Unusual Heat mare a good bet. Odds: 8 to 1
  4. Diplodocus – One of five who exits the Twilight Derby, including the aforementioned ‘Frank’, a race run on Breeders’ Cup Friday a few weeks ago. Finished 5th beaten a length in that one, but the point is that the race should prove to be key with 5 runners coming in for this one. But with one lifetime win – a maiden special at the distance at Santa Anita – this guy will have a tall task turning the tables on the others. Odds: 20 to 1
  5. Free Rose – Second in the Twilight Derby off back-to-back wins in the G3 La Jolla and G2 Del Mar Derby respectively. Horse was running for $20K claimers at Keeneland in early April before switching to the turf there two weeks later to crush ’em in a starter allowance at $55 to the American dollar. His two wins over the track, he’s 3 points shorter in the morning line than the horse that beat him last time. Odds: 5 to 1
  6. Isotherm – Comes in from New York off an 8th place finish as the favorite going 1 mile on a soft Belmont surface in the $100K English Channel. Toss that one and he belongs here but his two lifetime wins came on the Belmont inner going 1/16 shorter. And he’s been beaten by the ‘Kitten’ twice before. Gets Johnny V. but trainer Weaver is just 2% in graded stakes races. Odds: 12 to 1
  7. Blackjackcat – Equipment change as blinkers come off for the first time. Third behind ‘Frank’ and ‘Rose’ in the Twilight last time with Smith who’s won twice on this son of Tale of the Cat for 26% trainer Glatt. Runner is 0 for 2 at the distance including a sixth place finish as the favorite in the Del Mar Derby three back. Odds: 8 to 1
  8. Hayabusa One – Extremely well bred runner from France won his first race there over soft ground before coming to the states to win an AlwN1X over a fast Keeneland turf course going 1 3/16 miles with Geroux, who opts for Beach Patrol for Brown. Gets Espinoza who is 32% at the meet on a horse who got Lasix for the first time and won easily. Hasn’t been out in almost 8 weeks but Motion is sensational with this type of runner and is 40% to date at Del Mar in ’16, as he tests this guys affinity for Del Mar in preparation for the Breeders’ Cup in November ’17. Odds: 6 to 1
  9. Revved Up – Gets new rider in young rider Van Dyke who is making a name for himself on the So Cal circuit having won with 21% of his runners at the meet. 3 year-old has won two so far, both on the inner in New York going longer. Was 5th in the Commonwealth at Laurel, two lengths behind Isotherm. Sitting on back-to-back bullets at Belmont for trainer who is 18% with graded stakes runners this year. Odds: 20 to 1
  10. Defiantly – Came West in September to get his first win here going 1 1/16 miles in a maiden special after several in the money finishes on the East coast including a 3rd behind Revved Up. Two back was sent out for the first time by Dollase to finish 6th off maiden score, then took a restricted race here at 1 mile with Stevens last time out. Odds: 30 to 1
  11. Annals of Time – One of three for Brown. Took maiden voyage by a neck at Aqueduct going 1 mile a year ago. Came back last September to narrowly lose as the favorite at Saratoga going 1 1/16 miles. Completed the trifecta for Brown in the G3 Hill Prince last time out over the inner at Belmont. Improving numbers and Johnny V. stays with him. Room for improvement. Odds: 6 to 1
  12. Path of David – Broke maiden here going 1 mile with Talamo who’s back aboard after three unsuccessful runs with other riders. Was 7th in the Twilight beaten just two lengths for all the marbles. Trainer is 1 for 16 at the meet and 0 for 17 in graded stakes company. Odds: 30 to 1

DRF Free Past Performances

Who will win the Hollywood Derby?

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Hollywood Derby 2016 replay:

Native Diver 2016: Odds, Analysis, Insight

Native Diver 2016 – Del Mar

The 2016 running of the G3 $100,000 Native Diver at Del Mar is the feature race of the day.

Note: Check the weather forecast for Del Mar racing.

Here’s a look at each of the runners with insight and analysis starting from the rail out:

  1. Hard Aces – Won the G3 Cougar II here in July on the lead going 1 1/2 miles beating just three others. Followed that with two ‘also ran’ attempts vs. Chrome with best effort being a 4th by 11 in the G1 Awesome Again at Santa Anita. Second in the BC Marathon a few weeks ago while racing one, two with the winner. This isn’t the right distance for him.
  2. Ebadan – Just two lifetime wins for this youngster who made his first appearance on dirt with a 5th place finish in a NW2X optional claimer last time out. Trainer, Drysdale is 18% at the meet but 0 for 61 in graded stakes races. Will probably perform better than expected but getting his picture taken is probably out of the question.
  3. Pretentious – NW2L eligible this son of Kentucky Derby winner Super Saver has done most of his racing over the lawn but his best has been on dirt – where he’ll be today. Broke his maiden here in July ’15 in a race that was moved from turf to the sloppy main track, and with all the rain in the L.A. area overnight, he’ll get a favorable surface to run on. Still hard to back with confidence.
  4. Imperative – 6 year old son of Bernardini has 4 lifetime wins for earnings of over $2 million. With tons of back class, he’ll open as the 5 to 2 second choice having run second to Dortmund in this race last year, but most of his races have been G1 or G2 efforts where he’s been competitive but unsuccessful. He’s 0 for 6 at Del Mar, which stands out too much in here.
  5. Blue Tone – Third behind Hard Aces in the Marathon. Gets new rider in Hall of Famer, Stevens who’ll be aboard for the first time. Has three wins and a second at Del Mar when they were still running on the all-weather in ’14. Trainer 0 for 14 in graded stakes tries.
  6. Point Piper – Exits a 6th place finish in the Breeders’ Cup Mile which produced next out winner Gun Runner. Won his only race over the dirt here in ’15 but is 0 for 4 at this distance. Goes for HOF trainer Hollendorfer who is 22% when teaming with Gutierrez but will have to improve big time to take this.
  7. Midnight Storm – Winner of 8 lifetime, 7 of which were on the lawn. Gets new rider in Prat while Bejarano serves out a suspension. Trainer just 5% at the meet but has had some success with graded kind. Opens as favorite after winning three in a row before a 3rd place finish in Breeders’ Cup Mile in last outing.

DRF Free Past Performances

Who will win the Native Diver?

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